Zimbabwe’s projection that its economy will reach US$52 billion by 2026 has sparked intense criticism from economists and social commentators, who say the headline figure masks a worsening reality for ordinary citizens.
The government has presented the projection as evidence of robust economic growth. But leading economist Professor Gift Mugano argues that the rapid expansion is statistically inconsistent and socially misleading.
Speaking in a detailed analysis, Prof. Mugano said official data shows Zimbabwe’s GDP stood at around US$20–21 billion in 2019/2020, based on both census benchmarks and Ministry of Finance figures. “Now, in five years, our economy has doubled from US$20 billion to US$45–52 billion. It’s crazy,” he said. “Throughout COVID-19 we had negative growth, and recent growth rates have been low. We never had the kind of growth that doubles a GDP.”
Growing GDP, Growing Poverty
Key indicators reveal a population under increasing strain despite claims of expansion:
- Extreme poverty has surged from 29% in 2018 to 49% today.
- 60% of Zimbabweans live on less than US$3.65 per day.
- More than 80% of adults work in the informal sector.
- Over 2.5 million youths are unemployed and not in education, while ZimStat data shows 3.5 million out of 7 million young people are jobless.
“You can’t have a growing economy that doesn’t create jobs,” Prof. Mugano said. “If the economy was functioning, poverty should be falling — not rising.”
Informal Sector Rising, Not Shrinking
Under the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), the Finance Ministry had aimed to reduce informal sector employment to 70% by 2025. Instead, the share has risen to 87.7%, according to ZimStat — the highest in decades.
“This means only 12.3% of workers are in the formal sector in a supposedly US$52 billion economy,” Prof. Mugano noted. “Where is the transformation? Where are the jobs?”
