Zimbabwe’s Treasury Permanent Secretary George Guvamatanga has projected stronger-than-expected economic growth of at least 8.5% in 2026, driven by agriculture and mining, positioning the country for its fastest annual expansion since 2012.
Speaking to investors at the Mining Indaba in Cape Town, Guvamatanga said the economy is now expected to grow by a minimum of 8%, with potential to reach between 9% and 10%.
“The economy is actually expected to grow by a minimum of 8%,” he said, adding that the earlier projection had been 6.6%. “I would think that it would be in the 9% to 10% ranges, which is really a very strong growth trajectory.”
If achieved, the expansion would surpass last year’s estimated 6.6% growth and more than double the government’s initial 5% forecast for 2026.
IMF More Cautious
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has taken a more conservative view. While noting that last year’s growth surpassed the initial 6.6% projection, the IMF forecasts 4.6% growth for 2026.
Guvamatanga pointed to Zimbabwe’s 10-month Staff-Monitored Programme with the IMF as part of the country’s stabilisation path, saying reforms were reinforcing economic momentum.
Mining and Agriculture Lead Recovery
He attributed the improved outlook to ease-of-doing-business reforms and continued recovery in agriculture and mining.
Since 2018, Zimbabwe’s GDP has cumulatively increased by over 32%, surpassing the National Development Strategy One target of 5% annual growth, he said. The mining sector, in particular, has been central to that expansion.
“We are aware that social development alone will not attract investment,” Guvamatanga noted. “Policy certainty, fiscal competitiveness and capital recovery are decisive.”
He said Zimbabwe’s mining fiscal framework has been deliberately structured to support long-term capital investment, including full deductibility of mining capital expenditure such as exploration and mine development.
The ambitious projections now set the stage for a test of reform credibility, agricultural output and mineral performance in the year ahead.
