Zimbabwe’s Treasury says it collected US$2.55 billion in revenue during the first quarter of 2026 while spending US$2.25 billion, delivering a modest fiscal surplus that authorities are presenting as evidence of improving economic discipline in a country long battered by inflation shocks, currency instability and chronic budget overruns.
But beneath the encouraging numbers lies a growing anxiety inside government: the continued leakage of mineral wealth through smuggling networks that officials say are quietly draining millions of dollars from the economy.
Speaking during a Cabinet briefing this week, Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube said tighter enforcement measures and efforts to curb illicit trade had contributed to stronger revenue performance during the quarter.
“We also have smuggling of exports, especially around minerals; that too requires very serious concerted efforts to slow this down,” Ncube said.
For Zimbabwe, a country sitting on vast deposits of gold, platinum, lithium and chrome, the battle against smuggling has become as much a fiscal issue as it is a political one.
Gold remains the government’s biggest concern.
Officials estimate that significant quantities of bullion continue to leave the country through informal channels, depriving Treasury of desperately needed foreign currency and tax revenues at a time when Harare is trying to maintain fragile macroeconomic stability.
The issue has become even more pressing as global mineral demand shifts toward strategic resources linked to electric vehicles and clean energy technologies. Zimbabwe, home to some of Africa’s largest lithium reserves, has spent the past two years aggressively tightening control over raw mineral exports while pushing investors toward local beneficiation and value addition.
The government’s 2026 National Budget introduced several mining-related tax and royalty reforms aimed at improving transparency and increasing mineral revenues, including revised gold royalty structures and stricter transfer-pricing measures for mineral exports.
Treasury officials argue that stabilising the economy now depends not only on tax collection, but on sealing revenue leakages across the mining sector.
The first-quarter fiscal figures arrive as Zimbabwe attempts to project a rare image of economic steadiness after years of volatility.
The World Bank recently noted that Zimbabwe’s macroeconomic environment had shown signs of stabilisation in 2025, helped by lower inflation, improved exchange-rate stability and stronger mining and agricultural performance.
Government forecasts suggest the economy could maintain growth momentum through 2026, largely driven by mining exports, agriculture recovery and diaspora inflows.
Yet economists say the country’s dependence on minerals also exposes it to serious structural vulnerabilities.
Much of Zimbabwe’s economy remains highly informal, while illicit financial flows and smuggling continue to undermine state revenues. Critics argue that unless authorities improve governance, transparency and enforcement systems around the extractive sector, Treasury’s gains could remain fragile.
For Ncube, however, the message from Treasury is clear: the state is collecting more revenue, spending is being restrained and government wants tighter control over the country’s mineral wealth.
Whether those ambitions can outpace Zimbabwe’s deeply entrenched shadow economy may determine whether the current stability becomes durable — or merely another temporary calm in one of Africa’s most unpredictable economies.
