Zimbabwe’s political and industrial leadership has called for a decisive shift toward domestic production and consumption, warning that rising import dependence is undermining economic sovereignty and long-term growth prospects.
Speaking at the 2026 Buy Local Conference in Harare, Speaker of Parliament Advocate Jacob Mudenda said the country’s import bill had reached unsustainable levels, doubling from $4.5 billion in 2019 to $9 billion in 2024, with projections of about $10 billion in 2026. The trend, he said, reflects deep structural weaknesses in the economy.
“Every single month, Zimbabwe bleeds enough foreign currency to fund multiple major national infrastructure projects,” Mudenda told delegates, describing the import burden as a “stranglehold” on economic development.
Although exports are projected to grow by 5.8% in 2026—slightly ahead of import growth of 4.7%—Mudenda warned that the country’s export base remains narrowly concentrated in raw or minimally processed commodities, limiting the benefits of trade.
The conference, held under the theme “Lowering Zimbabwe’s Import Bill: Driving Local Industrial Growth,” brought together government officials, industry leaders and economists amid mounting concern over the country’s trade structure and industrial capacity.
A central theme emerging from the discussions was the need to rebuild domestic manufacturing ecosystems, particularly in intermediate goods—inputs used in producing finished products—which industry leaders say represent a critical gap.
Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) Chief Executive Sekai Kuvarika said Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector remains heavily reliant on imported raw materials and semi-processed goods, with average import dependence estimated at about 54% and reaching as high as 80% in some industries.
In the food processing sector alone, import dependence stands at approximately 59%, a figure Kuvarika described as “significant” and indicative of broader structural constraints.
“We are importing intermediate goods from countries that we are also competing with in both export and domestic markets,” she said, adding that the arrangement makes it “very difficult to compete” with finished products from those same economies.
Kuvarika pointed to underutilised industrial capacity as another major constraint, noting that factories were operating at around 52% capacity in 2024, leaving nearly half of installed production potential idle.
“You can’t price competitively if you are not producing at scale,” she said, warning that Zimbabwean firms are competing against large-scale global manufacturers while operating below optimal capacity.
She also raised concerns about fragmented and privately controlled value chains, arguing that some segments of production have effectively become “privatized ecosystems,” creating barriers to entry for new players and limiting broader industrial participation.
Beyond production challenges, Kuvarika highlighted structural issues in retail, noting that many major supermarket chains operating in Zimbabwe are foreign-owned and often prioritize products from their countries of origin.
“We need a competitive national retailer, which is a strategic asset,” she said, suggesting that Zimbabwean retail expansion into regional markets could help improve market access for local products.
Government officials acknowledged the challenges and signaled policy measures aimed at addressing them. Thomas Utete Wushe, Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, said authorities are working to create an enabling environment for both production and consumption of local goods.
“We are not here to make statements, but to listen from businesses,” Wushe said, adding that the ministry would respond with policies designed to close gaps identified by industry.
He noted that manufacturing’s contribution to gross domestic product has declined from about 25% in the past to around 15%, though combined contributions with other sectors bring the figure to roughly 26%. The government aims to increase this share as part of its Vision 2030 strategy to achieve upper-middle-income status.
Among recent policy measures, Wushe cited the introduction of a “reserved sectors” framework under which 21 sectors have been set aside for Zimbabwean investors, as well as initiatives to promote local participation in existing businesses and expand investment platforms through the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange.
He also pointed to a government directive halting exports of certain raw minerals as an opportunity to expand domestic value addition, with authorities mapping value chains across 60 key minerals to attract local investment.
Analysts at the conference emphasized that the country’s trade imbalance presents not only a challenge but also an opportunity for industrial transformation.
Tinomudaishe Hove, an analyst with Buy Zimbabwe, said the country’s trade deficit averaged $1.6 billion between 2021 and 2024, before narrowing by $404 million in 2025, driven largely by improved export performance.
However, he warned that the gains remain fragile, with imports still dominating key sectors.
“Fuel, food and fertilizers drain our foreign currency,” Hove said, noting that diesel imports alone cost about $1.01 billion in 2025, while petrol added $520 million. Imports of maize, wheat and soya exceeded $900 million, alongside significant fertilizer imports.
“These are not luxuries—they are essentials,” he said. “Every dollar spent importing them is a dollar lost to the local industry.”
Hove also highlighted the concentration risk in exports, with three commodities—gold, nickel matte and tobacco—accounting for roughly 75% of foreign currency earnings.
“If global prices dip, our economy feels it instantly,” he said, calling for diversification and greater investment in beneficiation and processing.
The broader message from policymakers and industry leaders was that import substitution must be accompanied by systemic reforms, including improved competitiveness in primary production, restoration of value chains and expanded export-oriented manufacturing.
Mudenda framed the issue as both economic and ideological, urging Zimbabweans to shift consumption patterns in favor of domestic goods.
“Every time Zimbabweans choose locally manufactured products over imported alternatives, they are casting a sovereign vote of confidence in their nation,” he said.
The conference concluded with a consensus that while “buy local” campaigns are often framed as patriotic appeals, their success ultimately depends on building competitive industries capable of producing affordable, high-quality goods at scale.
